Introduction
Universal basic income meets AI: could it really reach $10,000 per month?
As artificial intelligence advances, universal basic income (UBI) returns to center stage as a safety net in an economy where generative models may outperform humans across tasks. Former OpenAI researcher Miles Brundage argues that AI-enabled growth could make $10,000 monthly payments feasible, far above typical UBI levels. Evidence from past experiments shows UBI does not kill the will to work; it improves choices, health, and stability. Yet political and cultural hurdles remain: we are not ready for a “post-work” world, and without serious debate and guardrails there is a real risk of social stagnation.
Context
UBI provides recurring payments to adults, regardless of income or employment.
Concerns about AI-driven mass unemployment are not new. In 2016, Sam Altman recognized the risk and launched a study to see whether UBI could offset some effects. Typical UBI amounts range from $500 to $1,500 per month, often not enough to cover essentials without savings. Tech leaders differ: Elon Musk foresees automation replacing all jobs, while Bill Gates imagines two–three day workweeks. The common thread is clear: AI may redefine the relationship between work, income, and wellbeing, demanding fresh policy responses.
Universal basic income and AI: what changes
Brundage envisions much more generous UBI as AI-driven growth scales.
Miles Brundage, OpenAI’s former Senior Policy Advisor and head of AGI readiness until 2024, considers $10,000/month UBI plausible if AI lifts economic productivity. The gap versus traditional amounts is stark and aims to reveal stronger effects on wellbeing and work choices. Brundage adds that $1,000/month is most feasible policy-wise today, whereas $10,000/month could become feasible within a few years if AI-enabled growth materializes.
"I think that a significantly more generous UBI experiment than has been tried so far (say, $10k/month vs. $1k/month) would show big effects."
Miles Brundage, Former Senior Policy Advisor / OpenAI
"$1k/month is relevant to what's feasible policy-wise today. $10k/month is relevant to what will be feasible policy-wise in a few years with AI-enabled growth."
Miles Brundage, Former Senior Policy Advisor / OpenAI
The challenge
The risk: unemployment and UBI levels too low to ensure stability.
If generative AI outperforms humans across many activities, millions of jobs could be lost. UBI at $500–$1,500 often can’t cover living costs. The challenge is twofold: define protective UBI levels and prepare society for a new balance between work and income. Brundage warns we’re not politically or culturally ready for a lower-work world, and that a naive shift risks stagnation.
Evidence from Altman’s UBI experiments
Large-scale testing suggests UBI does not extinguish the desire to work.
In Sam Altman’s project, 1,000 people received $1,000/month; a 2,000-person control group received $50. Results showed most recipients kept working and increased spending on essentials (food, housing, transport). Hospital, specialist, and dentist visits rose; excessive alcohol and drug use fell. Reported stress declined and life satisfaction increased. Some chose lower-paid roles for autonomy or to enter specific industries, and entrepreneurship rose. In short, UBI widened options without shutting down work activity.
- Work continued despite the stipend
- Higher spending on basic needs
- Better access to healthcare and wellbeing
- More selective job choices
- More entrepreneurship
Solution / Approach
Test more generous UBI to better measure real-world effects.
Brundage’s proposal is to run higher-amount UBI pilots to assess impacts on autonomy, health, productivity, and work choice. The premise is that AI-led growth could support levels once considered unrealistic. Adoption, however, requires political and cultural readiness: without a clear policy design, a shift toward less work could destabilize. The aim isn’t abandoning work, but ensuring resilience as AI reshapes labor markets.
Risks and limits
We’re not ready for a post-work world: debate and policy are essential.
Brundage stresses that society is unprepared for reduced obligation to work due to AI and AGI. Without rules and public debate, stagnation—à la WALL-E—is a real risk. The priority is fitting UBI into a long-term framework that protects opportunity, dignity, and dynamism while avoiding unintended consequences.
"That is not something we're prepared for politically, culturally, or otherwise, and needs to be part of the policy conversation. A naive shift toward a post-work world risks civilizational stagnation (see: WALL-E), and much more thought and debate about this is needed."
Miles Brundage, Former Senior Policy Advisor / OpenAI
Conclusion
UBI can become a pillar in the AI era, but it demands bold testing and careful policy.
Current evidence indicates a well-designed universal basic income can boost wellbeing and choice without suppressing work. If AI-enabled growth arrives, higher amounts could be realistic. The direction is promising, but the transition needs institutional and social readiness.
FAQ
Can universal basic income reach $10,000/month with AI?
Brundage says it’s plausible with AI-enabled growth in the next few years. It hinges on productivity and policy choices.
What did Sam Altman’s UBI experiment show in the AI context?
With $1,000/month, most kept working and spent more on essentials, accessed more healthcare, and reported better wellbeing.
Does UBI discourage work in AI and AGI scenarios?
In the cited tests, recipients largely kept working. Some picked better-fitting roles or started businesses.
What UBI amounts are common today in AI-related debates?
Typically $500–$1,500/month, often insufficient when jobs are lost.
What risks does Brundage cite for a post-work AI world?
We’re not prepared politically or culturally; a naive transition could cause stagnation.
Could AGI remove the obligation to work for a living?
Brundage believes AI and AGI could reduce that obligation, but policy readiness is lacking.