Introduction
As we approach 2026, the corporate world faces a multi-trillion-dollar gamble. According to the new Teneo Vision 2026 survey, released in mid-December 2025, 68% of CEOs at the world's largest public companies plan to further increase Artificial Intelligence spending next year. This figure comes despite a chilling operational reality: less than half of current AI projects have generated a Return on Investment (ROI) that exceeds their costs.
This scenario outlines a classic "Innovation Paradox." While global markets have been buoyed by massive investments from tech giants (a trend solidified by record CapEx from Microsoft and Google throughout 2024/25), business leaders are now under pressure. They must pivot from expensive pilot projects to tangible profits, all while navigating a critical timeline discrepancy between their own expectations and the far more impatient demands of institutional investors.
Analysis & Details: The Spend-Return Gap
The Teneo survey, conducted between mid-October and November 2025 covering over 350 CEOs of companies with $1B+ in revenue, offers a unique snapshot of the current state of play.
The ROI Trap
The most alarming data point isn't the spending, but the efficacy. Only a minority of AI projects are paying the hoped-for dividends. Success is currently concentrated in "low-risk," high-volume areas:
- Winners: Marketing and Customer Service. Here, automation generates immediate, measurable savings.
- Challenges: Security, Legal, and Human Resources. In these high-stakes sectors, implementation complexity and error risks (or "hallucinations") are stalling ROI.
These findings align with parallel industry analyses. Recent reports (such as those from ZoomInfo or MLQ.ai regarding the "GenAI Divide") indicate that in some cases, up to 95% of enterprise projects fail to impact the P&L, suggesting Teneo's survey might actually be optimistic.
The Timeline Clash
"Investors are becoming increasingly impatient for ROI on these AI investments, creating a tension that will be important to watch in the year ahead." — Ursula Burns, Chairwoman of Teneo
There is a fundamental misalignment on timing expectations:
| Group | Expect ROI < 6 Months | Perspective |
|---|---|---|
| Institutional Investors | 53% | Demand quick profits, driven by market hype. |
| Large-Cap CEOs | 16% | 84% foresee long lead times (> 6 months) for real returns. |
This 37% gap creates significant risk for leadership: CEOs who fail to effectively narrate their "capability build" strategy risk being penalized by markets in the short term.
Market Impact: Jobs & M&A
The Employment Paradox
Contrary to the apocalyptic "replacement" narrative, AI is—for now—stimulating hiring. 67% of CEOs expect an increase in entry-level headcount due to AI, and 58% foresee an increase in senior roles as well. This phenomenon suggests companies are hiring to manage, train, and integrate models rather than engaging in mass layoffs. It is a phase of workforce "reshaping," not contraction.
Macro Forecasts
Economic sentiment shows a dimensional fracture:
- Large-Cap (Caution): Only 31% of large-company CEOs see economic improvement in the first half of 2026 (down from 51% a year ago). Geopolitical and trade uncertainties weigh heavy.
- Small/Mid-Cap (Optimism): 80% of smaller company CEOs are bullish.
- M&A Boom: 78% of CEOs predict an increase in mergers and acquisitions in 2026. This is consistent with the 2025 trend, where global M&A activity rose over 40% (Dealogic data), often driven by the need to acquire AI tech or talent.
Conclusion
2026 shapes up to be the year of truth for enterprise AI. While the experimentation phase (2023-2024) justified spending without immediate returns, investor patience is wearing thin. For CEOs, the challenge is no longer just technological but one of financial communication: they must prove that the billions spent today are not just sunk costs, but the foundation of future competitiveness. Those who fail this transition risk severe market punishment, regardless of the quality of their algorithms.