Introduction: A Shift in the AI Market
The race for generative artificial intelligence is entering a critical new phase. According to the latest data from Sensor Tower, while ChatGPT remains the undisputed leader in the space, its growth is starting to show signs of saturation. Conversely, Google Gemini is accelerating significantly, narrowing the gap with its OpenAI rival thanks to new integration strategies and innovative models.
Currently, ChatGPT still accounts for 50% of global mobile downloads and 55% of monthly active users (MAUs). However, trends from late 2025 indicate that Google is rapidly gaining ground in key metrics such as download growth and time spent in-app.
The Context: Saturation vs. Innovation
Data from November 2025 reveals an evolving landscape. While ChatGPT reached approximately 810 million monthly active users, its growth between August and November stalled at a modest 6%. This slowdown suggests that OpenAI's chatbot may be nearing saturation in the current market.
Meanwhile, Google Gemini saw a 30% jump in monthly active users during the same period. The driver of this growth appears to be twofold: deep integration into the Android ecosystem and the release of the new image generation model, Nano Banana.
OpenAI's Response: Code Red
The threat posed by Gemini's rapid rise has not gone unnoticed in San Francisco. OpenAI is aware that the gap is closing.
"OpenAI issued an internal 'code red' memo, penned by CEO Sam Altman, instructing staff to focus on improving AI products, particularly in areas like personalization, reliability, and image generation."
Source: Sensor Tower Report
This sense of urgency highlights that the battle for AI supremacy is far from over.
Data Analysis: Downloads and Engagement
Beyond active users, engagement metrics also tell a story of change. Time spent by users on the Gemini app has more than doubled in recent months, reaching an average of 11 minutes per day in November (+120% since March). In contrast, time spent on ChatGPT dropped by 10% compared to July.
The Android Ecosystem Advantage
A crucial factor for Google is distribution. The report notes that about twice as many U.S. Android users engage with Gemini directly through the operating system compared to those using the standalone app. This structural advantage allows Google to bypass the need for an explicit download, integrating AI into users' daily workflows.
The Competition: Not Just a Duopoly
While the spotlight is on Google and OpenAI, other players are emerging strongly:
- Perplexity: Recorded massive growth, up 370% year-over-year in 2025.
- Claude (Anthropic): Follows with a solid +190% year-over-year.
These figures suggest the market is fragmenting, with users exploring specialized alternatives rather than relying on a single generalist provider.
Conclusion
2025 ends with a clear message: ChatGPT's first-mover advantage is eroding. The success of the Nano Banana model and native Android integration have allowed Google to recover precious ground. The ball is now in OpenAI's court, which must respond with substantial innovations to reverse the slowdown trend and keep the crown.
FAQ
What is the growth difference between ChatGPT and Gemini in 2025?
In the August-November 2025 period, ChatGPT grew only 6% reaching 810 million users, while Gemini recorded a 30% jump in the same timeframe.
What is the Nano Banana model mentioned in the report?
Nano Banana is the new image generation model released by Google in September 2025, which helped double the usage time of the Gemini app.
Why is ChatGPT slowing down?
According to Sensor Tower, ChatGPT is nearing market saturation; additionally, it is facing competition from Gemini and emerging rivals like Perplexity and Claude.
Which other competitors are growing besides Google and OpenAI?
Perplexity and Claude saw triple-digit growth in 2025, up 370% and 190% year-over-year respectively, eating into the leaders' market share.